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Having actually played the game for almost 2 hours, this game is anything but casual, it's quite difficult. There's no way a Wii Fit soccer mom is going to be able to play this game well.

Just because it has motion controllers does not mean it's Wii Boxing. It's nothing like Wii Boxing. You will get your ass hand to you in this game if you try just waggling around like crazy. It's a pretty difficult game, you really need to know what you're doing. Smash Brothers is probably easier to play, the controls are actually quite difficult. 

This isn't a game that's going to bring in casuals. That was 1,2 Switch, but its success has been limited.

Switch doesn't need casuals, it can do fine without them and is doing just that. For *this* particular game showing motion controls makes sense, because it is a game about (well) ARMS, but it doesn't mean though that this is anything like Wii Sports. It far, far more complex and quite frankly, it's not easy to play. You have  to really know what are you doing. 

The game it's most like now that I've acually played is actually Virtual On, the old Sega arcade game. It's a projectile/long distance fighter.