| alephnull said: Slimebeast said: So can someone explain ensemble forecasting and how it applies to these professional video game sales prediction graphs, and the difference between installed base and unit sales, instead of being sarcastic. response: Although not quite correctly, I would describe ensemble forecasting as simply the use of a weighted average of forecasts. Now assume these forecasts have different variances and averages at each point in time and are skewed in some direction such that the median does not equal the mean (the risks are on the up/downside). You want to find the set of weight functions which reflect you confidence in a various models under various circumstances. I don't know that this is being used here for video game sales prediction. But ensemble forecasting is in vogue for meteorology and market prediction and there is enough money involved for people to hopefully take things seriously enough to hire experts and it would explain the graph. If you would like a more detailed explanation I would be happy to point you to the foundational literature or elaborate on anything specifically you are unclear about. Your level of mathematics training would also help me in any clarification. |
Ok, I think I understand, but an example wouldn't have hurt. As om mathematics I've completed upper secondary technical school and I have one university course in statistics (just one term, in Sweden btw).
Anyway, so far you're using terms that are way above my level *(plus there's the language barrier).
*(in the rest of your post above, your reply to Bodesatva)
Also, I don't think you made clear the difference between unit sales and installed base. I thought it was consensus knowledge that when talking video console sales total unit sales = installed base.
BTW, the graph interpreted by many as "negative Wii sales" is not a big thing around here (on VGC). Most people thought it was an error and left it at that.
Of course we know that the analysts use intricate statistical models and factors such as shifting demographics and fluctuating economis to make their forecasts. But is that an excuse for their terrible outcomes? BTW, the article we are discussing uses arguments that we are able to understand and judge, and form an opinion about. If the experts are using words like "casuals", "strong brand" and "fad" we're automatically invited to the discussion and analysis, even if we're laymen here.
