Switch vs Ps4 - Who will win 2017 WW

[VideoGameAccountant]

Manlytears said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

In Fiscal year 2007 (April 1, 2007 - March 31, 2008) Nintendo was able to sell 23.56 million DS systems and 5.84 million Wii systems, for a total of 29.4 million systems sold. It was even higher in fiscal-year 2008 (48.92 million). Now, say what you will about sales and the economy, but these numbers show that Nintendo is able to produce a significant amount of units in a year. Far more than 15-16 million (which both the DS and WIi beat until 2012).

whatever you say, chances are on the ps4 side.... switch will not sell more than ps4, or at the very least this is extremily ulikely, and nintendo will not be able to produce enough switches to beat sony in 2017. Nintendo has already made a forecast of 10 million switch in 1 year, believing they will exceed that estimate in 70-80% ... realy?

First, your original point was that Nintendo couldn't supply 14-15 million units, which is wrong (based on the numbers I provided). Second, Nintendo has beated their own projection before. The Nintendo Wii was projected to sell 14 million for fiscal year 2007. Actual sales were 18.6 million. Nintendo beat projections by 4.6 million units. So Nintendo's projection can be conservative. Analyst are saying 10 million is too low.

So let's do some math.

US - The Switch is selling 10 percent more than the Wii. https://pvplive.net/c/nintendo-switch-sales-beating-wii-sales-by-10-perc

Nintendo sold 8.24 million Wiis in 2007. 10 percent more than that would be exactly 9 million.

Japan - Looking at Media Create, the Switch is selling 26K right now a weak. Now, it will likely be higher as more games come out, but let's go with this for now. But even at that level its 1.4 million in total. Now, Switch was selling around 40K a week in the first few weeks, so its safe to say those sales are achievable if there are enough titles (and we have Splatoon and MH coming to the system). SO if we take 40K and times it by 52 weeks, we get 2 million sales. The Switch could still sell better as the Wii sold 3.9 million in FY 2007.

Europe - Right now, the Switch is selling about 60K a week according to VGChartz. Times this by 52 and we get 3.1 million. For reference, the Wii sold 6.7 million in "Other" in 2007.

So lets add them up: 2 + 9 + 31 gets us at 14.1 million. This is right about the number you said. This is also not considering seasonality or big releases in Japan or Europe. These sales will likely be slightly higher. 15-16 million would be about right. Sony is projecting 18 million shipped this FY, but this is year 4 for the system and with more competition, that number may be a bit high. So no, Nintendo beating Sony is not unrealistic. If order for it to not happen, A)Sony has to ship at least what they say they will (of course, this is just to stores, not customers), B)Nintendo can't produce at the same levels they did in 2007 and C)There will be no seasonal increase in sales.