You really think Spider Man is that big of an X-factor?
I personally think Spiderman will push consoles no doubt, but I dont think it not releasing will change MS's chance of success, which at the moment, unless scorpio is really cheap and really powerful, will lots of supporting software....I dont see it doing anything.
Rumour the other day was Spiderman is 2017, according to Marvel excec....if so that with GT Sport, wow, already the end of the year is looking potentially awesome. I suspect Sony have ensured the end of this year has some big exclusives which will help combat the "Scorpio" hardware effect.... and like we've always said, consoles sell on games. If MS is just hoping to push the COD is best looking on scorpio line, its going to look pretty bleak when sony have their major exclusives showing up.
Even with RDR2 moving to 2018, 2017 is looking to end the year amazing. I can see a lot of consoles being pushed and an exclusive spiderman game on PS4 bundled... will sell bucket loads.
I think we have two years of PS4 being at the top of its software game. 2017 with GT, Spiderman, crash, uncharted, wipeout etc, and 2018 with RDR2, GOW, and with dreams and detroit in 2017 or 2018. This would leave me to believe 2019 will have LOU2 and the slowing down of games, with PS5 being a 2020 release.
So I think this year we'll see another 16m approx with no price cuts, but I think they still have this year or next year with a 20m in them. If they can bring the PS4 down to 199... 20m is possible. E3 is going to be fascinating.