Global Hardware 4-8-17

[pastro243]

PAOerfulone said:

GOWTLOZ said:

Detroit is going to be huge and if you haven't heard of it then you really aren't in a position to say what games are going to be system sellers for PS4 as you don't even know some of its most hyped upcoming games.

God of War will sell systems. It always does. And this one looks to be an even bigger seller than the previous games.

Also you listed like five games on Switch and PS4 has the same number of system sellers with God of War, Red Dead Redemption 2, The Last of Us 2, Gran Turismo Sport and Spiderman. And then it has huge multiplatform games that will continue to sell systems like FIFA, Star Wars Battlefront and Call of Duty and you may say they have already come out on the system but they come out every year and still sell huge number of PS4's every year.

There are also unannounced games like GTA 6 and Elder Scrolls 6 that haven't had a new release this generation and will sell huge numbver of systems when the come out. There are also a lot of smaller AAA games that are announced and unnanounced that will sell systems and that is something Nintendo doesn't have.

And I'm sure The Last of Us 2 will sell more than Animal Crossing and Mario as the first one sold over 13 million units. God of War generally sells 4 to 6 million units which is more than Splatoon and this one will sell more than previous games. Spiderman could go anyway depending upon the quality and marketing but I'm sure it will have both. He is the most popular superhero and Batman Arkham games sell over 8 million units. This being an exclusive I can see it doing the smae numbers even though Spiderman is more popular. Gran Turismo Sport could go either way but Gran Turismo 7 will be the real system seller. I expect all of them to generally sell the same amount of software and hardware as the Nintendo games you mentioned except Pokemon. But PS4 also has advantage with its multiplatform games.

And PS4 Pro will take PS4's place next year as consumers want more powerful hardware that can run their PS4 games at a higher resolution on their 4K TV's and so its sales will continue to be good.

1. Detroit - Just like how Horizon moved a bunch of units. Oh wait... And just like Horizon, it will be extremely frontloaded the first two weeks and then fall off a cliff afterwards.

2. God of War - It will sell PS4's but not to the amount of Switches that Mario will sell or maybe even Splatoon 2 for that matter. God of War 3 sold around 5 million on the PS3, wheras Splatoon 1, a new IP, sold close to that ON THE WII U. If a NEW IP sold that much on a system that flopped as badly as the Wii U did, imagine how it will do on a system that is actually selling great, ESPECIALLY in Japan, where handhelds reign supreme AND is Splatoon's biggest market. So, I wouldn't give that victory to God of War 4 just yet. Red Dead Redemption 2 is also available on Xbox One and PC.

3. Spider-Man - Is 'wait and see' depending on marketing and quality, so I agree with you there. As far as being the most popular superhero goes, that's another can of worms I don't want to step into, (though he's certainly MY favorite).

4. Gran Turismo - Based on what Yamauchi says here: https://www.gtplanet.net/gran-turismo-sport-could-have-been-called-gt7-sport/ 
"For me, Gran Turismo Sport is Gran Turismo 7. Gran Turismo Sport is something that marks the beginning of a new generation or era. When you consider Gran Turismo 1-6 as the first era, GT Sport marks a new generation moving forward.” Sounds like Sport IS 7. 

5. FIFA, Star Wars, Call of Duty - All of those games sell around the same amount of copies every year. (Infinite Warfare is actually significantly down compared to Black Ops 3. FIFA 16 and 17 actually sold less overall than FIFA 15). And those games come out close to or around the holiday season, where EVERYTHING sells huge numbers. People who wanted the system for those games most likely have already got one and are just patiently waiting for the next one to come out. In FIFA's case, there may very well be a noticeable boost next year because of the World Cup, but after that, there's nomore hardware for FIFA to sell.

6. PS4 Pro - The New 3DS didn't exactly help the 3DS in the long run, the system has still been dropping year over year despite its launch. When the DSi launched in 2009, the DS was STILL down year over year, albeit slightly, compared to 2008, before it started dropping noticeably when the 3DS was announced. The same will exact thing will happen whenver the PS5 is revealed. And the PS4 was down last year compared to 2015 despite not 1, but 2, hardware revisions. Pro will take the PS4's place like you said and keep sales strong, but on the other hand, whose to say the Switch won't get a hardware revision itself. (It's all but guaranteed really).

Horizon didn't fall off a cliff, it sales curves is pretty normal.

Anyway, this game by game comparison makes little sense. As time goes by, the impact of individual games on HW sales diminishes and that will obviously be true for ps4 too, still, these games build big and attractive libraries that keep people comming to get the system (multiplats obviously included). Ps4 may slow down and maybe switch will beat it somewhere in time, but the system has a lot of life left in it and will probably reach 100 million + with a huge amount of SW sold. 

Seriously, I don't feel both of them have to compete, but if we play that game, it's yet to be seen if NS can get the HW and total SW sales the ps4 has/will have