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A 3D pokemon games (mmorpg) and maybe another Mario game are the only first party titles that can I imagine will sell as big as previous 1st party titles , in my opinion Nintendo used all their best titles SMG , SSBB , MK , Wii-Fit etc in the early stages of the Wii's life cycle.

I think Nintendo can only keep up this consistency with new IP's and well all know the new IPs need to be 1.5 better than proven brands because of the need to convince the consumer, that makes keeping consistency even more of a challenge.

I think Nintendo will be heavily reliant upon third party developers as we near the end of this gen , maybe even more so than Microsoft.

Edit: actualy not more than microsoft , but quite alot.