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Going by Nintendo's end of March numbers (2.7m) given in their IM and April's NPD (280k) as well as the numbers in Japan given by MC/Fam in the sales forum for April (181k) that would mean US and Japan sold around 461k putting the NS at around 3.16m at the end of April before we get the numbers for the PAL region.

Going by this rate if it continues NS may be just under 4m by the end of May.