Year 1 - Week 52 - Global Switch Sales vs WiiU/XboxOne/3DS/PS4

[barneystinson69]

RolStoppable said:

barneystinson69 said:

The XB1 was pacing with the PS4 till the end of its first holiday season. It then collapsed after that, and for a time was trailing the Wii U in weekly sales. Today its trailing 2:1 to the PS4 (though far better than at its worst moments). I know you're happy that the Switch is doing well now, but we cannot predict trends in a year or two. The Switch had Zelda to launch, which certainly helped. But once again, that doesn't mean momentum will last forever. 35 million is hardly a flop in my eyes, but I was expecting a decline due to a number of factors. If I am wrong, than so be it. But such a preidiction is reasonable, especially with the decline Nintendo HW has had since the 7th gen.

You can't predict anything, but I can.

Switch momentum is going to last because of big game releases throughout 2017. 2018 will have more big games, so momentum will improve because that's normal for year 2. What this means is that Switch will comfortably pass the 35m mark before 2020.

And no, predicting a severe decline is not reasonable when a company is set to do everything better than in the previous generation. Your Switch prediction was as reasonable as someone predicting that the Xbox One will comfortably outsell the PS4 in North America on the basis of Microsoft's gains and Sony's losses in the seventh generation. Anyone who bothered to look at the Xbox One could tell that it was going to lose. A new generation means that things start at 0 again, and Microsoft's original vision for the Xbox One was absolutely terrible. When it was time to evaluate Switch, many people thought "Wii U did bad, therefore Switch is going to be the same" despite video game history already providing us with a Nintendo example: The Wii didn't follow the trajectory of the GameCube.

Lol. Well you had some pretty awful Wiiu predictions, so let's not act like you're perfect. Aside from the jabs we've taken at each other, you have to understand trends change over time. The PS3 for example had a horrendous launch, but went on to roughly equal the 360 at the end. The Wii on the other hand was a huge success at first, but by the end of the generation was a fad that people didn't care for. And I don't take my predictions lightly. I did after all predict that the Xbox one would sell 30 mil before the Wii u sells 15 million 2 years ago (this was one my old account before I got banned, and the I made a bet on it again). Even with its poor numbers, few people had the foresight in seeing the Wii u preform so poorly. At the end of the day, our predictions are little more than guessing games. We all have our hits and misses...