Year 1 - Week 52 - Global Switch Sales vs WiiU/XboxOne/3DS/PS4

[barneystinson69]

RolStoppable said:

barneystinson69 said:

Where exactly did I say the console would flop? 

Also, I expected 35 million sales IF it was a handheld and home console replacement (which its pretty much confirmed to have been). I don't know why early sales are an indication of future trends...

 

barneystinson69 said:

Oh please Rol. You know very well I explained the circumstances for that in order to happen, and I had two predictions. If it was a handheld and home console replacement, it would sell 35 million. If it was replacing just the Wii U but still selling as well as it has been so far, I would've eaten my hat. 

Yes, you had two predictions.

1. If Switch is only replacing the Wii U, it will sell less than the Wii U. You predicted a flop.
2. If Switch replaces Wii U and 3DS, it will sell less than half of those two systems combined. You predicted a flop.

That brings us back to the running gag: Think before you hit the submit button, barney.

Early sales are more often than not representative of future trends. The only exceptions are consoles that started slow and improved later on. There has yet to be a console that started fast and ended up being a flop. I am not talking about the launch month in this paragraph. It's the non-holiday weeks beyond the launch month that determine whether a console is a slow or a fast starter. Switch has started fast.

The XB1 was pacing with the PS4 till the end of its first holiday season. It then collapsed after that, and for a time was trailing the Wii U in weekly sales. Today its trailing 2:1 to the PS4 (though far better than at its worst moments). I know you're happy that the Switch is doing well now, but we cannot predict trends in a year or two. The Switch had Zelda to launch, which certainly helped. But once again, that doesn't mean momentum will last forever. 35 million is hardly a flop in my eyes, but I was expecting a decline due to a number of factors. If I am wrong, than so be it. But such a preidiction is reasonable, especially with the decline Nintendo HW has had since the 7th gen.