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So, Spla2n over ARMS in Japan (by a wide margin), Germany, and ARMS over Spla2n in north America, rest of Europe.

Can also be explained culturally, kind of? Arms has a comic-book-hero feel, and involves colourful fighting (think wrestling, or lucha libre), so it's more popular in America.

Splatoon is squids, and got a manga, so Japan...



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.