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bonzobanana on 12 May 2017
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Miyamotoo said:
Uabit said:
I still think it will be another Wii U all over again if they don't manage to get more exclusives or even multiplats on that machine. Sure Zelda, Mario and specially Pokemon will sell many Switch, but for Switch to sell lets say 25+ million consoles it'll need something more.

Is this serious post!? Switch had great launch and still is selling great with more system seller games later in year. Switch will most likely will hit around Wii U LT numbers after 13 months on market, for now it seems that Switch sold more in 2 months than Wii U in 11 months.

We are still in the honeymoon period only 2 months from launch. I would definitely agree the signs are looking positive but we do need to see how the Switch sells once it has sold to it's core audience and whether it extends out towards a more casual audience. At the moment it is supply restricted. I think once we get to about 6 million consoles sold then we can see the sales pattern. 

Also this thing about predicting Switch sales is getting a bid annoying because its often not clear whether we are predicting sales of this mk1 Switch or the whole Switch platform that might run to half a dozen sku's or more going well into the future. It feels to me that the Switch mk1 is more like the DS and a revised cheaper Switch  more equivilent to DS lite will be the larger success story. So for example the 25 million above seems very high for the mk1 Switch  but very low for the Switch platform as a whole. I mean many years from now there could be a Switch filling the shoes of a the original 2DS price point, offering only original Switch portable performance with a smaller screen aimed directly at children and selling in huge numbers in multiple colours and possibly special editions.

A customised tegra processor based on a later fabrication process could be used in Switch mk2 and general improvements all round (except possibly screen size which I think may reduce slightly) could be a far better product. It's fairly obvious Nintendo were a bit uncertain about Switch success and kept R&D to minimal levels even using a standard Tegra chipset without modification with the only real innovation being the new vibration which in fact doesn't seem that important to Switch's launch success and was more a software innovation anyway using existing technology. I personally think we could see the revised model by 2018 especially if there is a significant but small slowdown in sales.