Switch vs Wii - Who will sell more LT?

[VideoGameAccountant]

TallSilhouette said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

If the reason for the decline in handhelds is due to mobile gaming, then why did Pokemon Go result in higher sales for 3DS hardware and Pokemon software? If your argument is true and the reason for the decline in handheld is the growth of the mobile market, then this would mean they would be mutually exclusive. By your argument, Pokemon Go should have resulted in a decline in Pokemon games because you could now get Pokemon games on the phone. So mobile can not be the reason for the decline because customers can just as easily move towards handheld gaming.

Your argument fails because correlation does not equal causation. The global economy was weaker in 2011 than it was in 2004. This can be seen in the video game market as a whole with total hardware sales and software sales declining significantly. You also have the 3DS just being a worse console than the DS. The system only sold 3 million its first year and then sold 12-13 million when the price was cut and better games came out. You can't ignore this as well. There are other reasons that explain the decline.

 Software sells hardware. The Switch is a success because Zelda is a success. Mario Kart 8 is pushing the Switch. Splatoon 2 will push the system in Japan. By all accounts, the system should keep selling thanks to early momentum. Momentum brings developers who will make more games which will help propel the system. The Nintendo Switch will have plenty of Japanese development as the 3DS and DS did. So with this early push, I don't see why sales would just collapse.  Also keep in mind the DS started kind of weak. The system only sold 5.27 million in its first 4 months and that was during Christmas. The Switch has sold about half of that in its first month in March. I don't see how this system could not get close to Nintendo's other handhelds. 

I never said the markets were completely exclusive. PoGo becoming another (brief) cultural phenomenon did help give the 3DS a sales spike when a mainline entry was right around the corner to capitalize on all that buzz. But it's telling that Go was the bigger success of the two (sizably). The core will always be there when you entice them, but Nintendo consoles have always needed large casual appeal as well to break the nine figure mark; cheap and novel enough to be good impulse buys with a really enticing accessible game to bait the hook. The Switch is not cheap for a handheld, its hybrid aspect is not as novel as previous big successes, and the casual market now already have capable devices within reach at all times for their simple gaming fix. Casual crazes now come out of devices they already use daily (mobile/PC). 1-2 Switch is not exactly setting the world on fire. Without the bulk of that extra market, a Nintendo console is not likely to see that level of success. It certainly hasn't before. You can't ignore this. 

No, you never said they were mutually exclusive, but for your argument to be true, they must be mutually exclusive. Even now, you can't explain why Pokemon Go increased DS sales beyond "It's just a fluke bro." You say that the "casual" market has cheaper capable devices, but it's clear that they will move upmarket (again, this is why for your argument to be true, they must be mutually exclusive). The point of Nintendo's mobile games is to upsell (which can be more profitable has engagement rates for mobile are low).

Your argument is just moving the goal post. Price is wrong? PS2 was $300 and broke $100. The Wii was only $50 more expensive. And the system is selling out in hours.  Oh, and this is all in March. 1-2-Switch isn't selling well? What about Zelda which has an attach rate of over 100% (and open world games like Skyrim broke 20 million. I think there can be "casual appeal" here). What about Mario Kart, a series that has broken 30 million before. Also, is the "extra market" one big block of hivemind grandmas to you? The Gameboy sold over 100 million without this "extra market" you speak of. Do you think that may its wrong to look at million of consumers as one big block? Your argument is too based on pejoratives rather than facts.