Will 3DS outsell the GBA?

[Asriel]

Barkley said:

the_dengle said:
Up to Nintendo. They are expecting another 6 million sales this year, assuming they meet that goal they'll be within spitting distance. At that point it's a question of whether they continue to market the thing. If they keep pushing $99 deals during Holidays I think it can coast past 80m in a few years.

It's more down to if they continue to procude and ship the thing. I expect the 3ds will be discontinued and the last unit to be shipped next year.

If Nintendo ship 6 million units over the next 12 months, why on Earth would they discontinue the system in 2018? 6 million is obviously a decline on previous years, but it's still more than Wii U shipped in any single financial year. Nintendo continued to ship the GBA to Europe and Japan into 2009, even though shipments were in the hundreds of thousands rather than millions. Production might cease, but shipments don't necessarily cease too. Nintendo continued to ship Wii in 2015 despite shipment numbers dropping into the 100,000s, too. 

3DS may very well cease to be a core part of Nintendo's business, and shipments might decline substantially in 2018, but don't expect discontinuation or an end to shipments until 2019 or 2020.