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mrstickball said:
Europe/others.

In Japan, the PS3 has had the advantage of being $450 (ish), been out since November, and had a few major J-titles, yet is being beat rather handily by the more expensive, and more recent European launch. PS3 launched w/ 400-500k first week there, and has done 20k+ every week. PS3 launched w/ ~100k in Japan, and hasn't even hit the million mark.

Therefore, trends show that in Europe/others, PS3 should beat its counterpart in the land of the rising sun by 1.5:1 or even 2:1 if GTAIV does well in Europe on PS3.

X360 has Lost Odyssey for Japan, and imo, that could steal some major thunder from Sony if it was a first-strike vs. MGS4.
 
I agree, Europe is their only real strong market anymore.  I don't expect the PS3 to do well in Japan at all during the holidays.  They couldn't get sales up during Golden Week so I doubt Xmas will be a whole lot better.  Really I'd say if the holidays go well for the Wii BOTH the 360 and PS3 can be written off as irrelevant in Japan at least till FFXIII, and even assuming that will necessarily pull them out of a sales dive is asking a lot.  Remember Metal Gear Solid is popular in Japan, but hardly a system seller.  Not a single MGS game has broke 1 million sold in Japan.  The PS3 just doesn't seem to hold the interest of the current Japanese market.