Honestly, I've no idea. I thought WiiU would do better than it did. I was surprised at Switch's fast start and bewildered by PS4's stratospheric climb. I'm just not very good at analyzing the market before the fact.
Wii had the benefit of being a genuine phenomenon, one that drew in folks who'd never played a video game system. It also won over many with its focus on intuitive motion controls.
Switch will never become that phenomenon, but it does have a different list of pros. It's more versatile, it advertises itself out in public, and it lends itself to hardware revisions, double dipping, and price cuts. Also, unlike the 7th gen when Nintendo was splitting its efforts between Wii and DS, in this gen (whatever you want to call it) Nintendo has merged all software development going forward on a single platform. I think that translates to a longer shelf life. In other words: Switch won't match Wii's high yearly sales, but it might last several years longer and make up the difference that way.
What both systems share are must-have games and hardware that's immediately attractive and understandable. Those represent a strong foundation. It's up to Nintendo to stay the course.
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