PS4 worldwide shipments top 60 million

[VideoGameAccountant]

Zekkyou said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

A decline is not unexpected as the console is reaching its peak. Consoles usually dip after the third year. The system just hit its year three so it should go down. Also, I don't think there will be a price cut. Sony needs to profits.

As far as 100 million, that may a bit of a long shot. If we were in the third year of a console cycle, then sure, 100 million is not a far cry. But Generation 8 is ending and Generation 9 is starting. I think this will have an impact on the system's growth as competition increases. 

I think we're far beyond the point of being able to point to the line between generations and extrapolate data from it. Nintendo have gone completely out of sync with Sony and MS and seem to have opted against directly competing with either, Sony and MS aren't even synced for their first ever mid-gen upgrades, and it remains to be seen how either plans to approach a "proper" generation jump.

The PS4 is likley going to start seeing a decline, but we've not yet seen anything that would imply it'll be an aggressive drop. Sony are currently forecasting a drop from 20 million to 18 million.

Nintendo competes asymmetrically, but that doesn't mean they aren't competing. For whatever reason, the market always demands new systems within about 5-6 years, and manufacturers need to launch within about a year of the competition. One of the major reasons they do this is for developers. If one waits too long, they won't be able to attract developers to their systems. The companies don't want to learn a new hardware when they have no idea what the install base will be and the other system(s) already has the install base they need. Sony can't play in Generation 8 forever. They have to move on.

To directly address the topic "Why won't it sell 100 million," is to ask why the PS4 has sold as well as it did. If you compare consoles sales to the same time last generation, you'd see hardware sales are down. This means Sony's growth is not doing to bringing in new customers but by consolidating the remaining ones around Playstation. Sony now has competition with Switch which is doing very well. Because handhelds do so well in Japan, Japanese developers will focus on it over Playstation. 

The question is do customers who have, thus far, stayed out of Gen 8 want to jump in now or would they rather jump into Gen 9. My expectation is consumers will go forward (thanks in part to an improving economy). They will either invest in Switch or wait for Sony and Microsoft to release new machines. Again, if Gen 9 didn't start I could see 100 million. I think its too late.