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Kerotan on 29 April 2017
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Zekkyou said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

A decline is not unexpected as the console is reaching its peak. Consoles usually dip after the third year. The system just hit its year three so it should go down. Also, I don't think there will be a price cut. Sony needs to profits.

As far as 100 million, that may a bit of a long shot. If we were in the third year of a console cycle, then sure, 100 million is not a far cry. But Generation 8 is ending and Generation 9 is starting. I think this will have an impact on the system's growth as competition increases. 

I think we're far beyond the point of being able to point to the line between generations and extrapolate data from it. Nintendo have gone completely out of sync with Sony and MS and seem to have opted against directly competing with either, Sony and MS aren't even synced for their first ever mid-gen upgrades, and it remains to be seen how either plans to approach a "proper" generation jump.

The PS4 is likley going to start seeing a decline, but we've not yet seen anything that would imply it'll be an aggressive drop. Sony are currently forecasting a drop from 20 million to 18 million.

And that's just shipped.  For all we know actual consumer sales could be equal FY 2017 as it was in 2016. FY 2018 could well be another 18m year and who knows what's after.  We'll likely get a gta VI in 2019 and that will move a lot of ps4's.