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pokoko on 28 April 2017
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the_dengle said:
pokoko said:

As I said to begin with, that's not normally something you'd do, but the Wii U's numbers were so low that Nintendo certainly wants to do more than the 3DS + Wii U total.  I'm not adding the numbers, I'm saying that merging the two markets should be worth more than the 3DS + Wii U total and Nintendo would not be happy with the amount of retraction that would represent.  The Wii U's total is far too low to be considered acceptable.

"The only purpose for selling hardware is as a platform for software and accessories," is not really true, either.  There will be peaks and valleys, obviously, but if you're going steadily backwards then your brand is losing value.  Even if you're making a profit every year, your userbase is declining.  In business, a lack of growth is the same as dying.  Nintendo, especially, has a problem where they've been depending on a small pool of die-hard fans instead of growing their base of new fans.  That's why they were concerned that Amiibo did not work as intended.  They have to start selling more hardware, which would indicate that they're bringing new consumers into the fold.  Otherwise, they'll eventually atrophy.  

Now, if you're saying that the Wii U does represent Nintendo's potential in the home console market, and that they could not do better, then you have that right, but we'll have to disagree.  I think the Wii U was just a badly designed product and that the home console market has a lot more potential for them than that.  Merging the handheld and home console markets should represent more sales than either market alone and it should bring a higher attach rate.  

It seems to me you are the one using the Wii U's sales as the baseline of Nintendo's home console market, since you're the one using it in your calculation of the figure to beat. If you think the Wii or any other platform represent their home console potential, why aren't you using 3DS + Wii? YOU have accepted the contraction to Wii U sales.

You should proofread the bolded, what do you think "the Wii U + 3DS total" means when contrasted with a contraction? You claim you aren't adding the numbers? Your first post on the matter was "They have to at least want the Switch to sell Wii U + 3DS numbers," in response to a statement I made merely pointing out that this is not an additive equation.

If you want to know what Nintendo and their investors "want" or expect, just take a look at Nintendo's sales projections for the Switch and their stock performance. It doesn't match up with the hand-wringing among console warriors over some nonsensical, imaginary "X + Y" benchmark.

Let's flip the script. 3DS and Wii U sold a combined 26+ million consoles in Japan. Do you think Nintendo will hang their head in shame if the Switch tops out at a mere 25 million?

3DS old over 13 million its first year, Wii U over 5 million by he end of 2013. You're calling for nearly 20 million sales in 9 months? Has any console ever done that? And again, if you think the Wii U is not representative of the true potential of Nintendo's home consoles as you claim, you should use the Wii, which sold over 10 million in its first 9 months. Now, does 23+ million in 9 months sound like a realistic expectation based on the real world, or does it sound like goalpost-moving? Let's consider that Nintendo is calling for about 13 million sales at the 13-month mark, and their investors aren't fleeing in horror.

The hell are you talking about?  I never said that.  That's dishonest and I expected better of you.  The idea that cumulative totals have to match up perfectly each year and in each region makes no sense.  Obviously, Nintendo is hoping the Switch has a longer tail that the Wii U.  

I really don't know how you aren't getting this.  I'm saying that Wii U did not sell enough to be representative of the home console market potential.  

Also, "if the Wii U isn't representative then the Wii must be representative" is clearly made-up nonsense.  You're being disingenuous by trying to create a false dichotomy where nothing exists in the middle.  There is nothing to indicate that both aren't outliers.  

I thought it sounded like you were attempting to establish a very low bar for the Switch and that seems to be the case.  Why, I don't know.  Nintendo is merging two markets and they have to show that doing so will grow the brand.  Barely selling more than ONE product line would not accomplish that.  Crisis isn't imminent by any means but brand erosion is a real threat unless they expand their userbase.