the_dengle said:
They are merging two markets that overlapped. That's why simply adding them together numerically makes no sense. In a sense, they are retracting their expectations. With Wii U & 3DS they clearly hoped for two simultaneously very successful products like the Wii and DS. Their goal was two 100-million-ish selling platforms. They wound up with two disappointments. So, what is the Switch? Do you think they expect it to represent the Wii and DS successes added together, or have they accepted a single lower-risk huge success rather than trying to score two at the same time again? There are better ways to measure growth than console sales, and even in that regard growth over last gen would mean growth over the 3DS. The Wii U isn't a factor because it was a huge failure. The only purpose for selling hardware is as a platform for software and accessories, the main sources of Nintendo's income. Wii U sold so little hardware that the investment was a net negative. The install base (therefore the target market of all software & accessories) was so small that it wasn't worth investing in. Nintendo was stuck funding games that had little chance of turning a decent profit, but the much worse effect of this is that other companies had little interest in developing Wii U games. Whether the Wii U sold 1 million or 10 million consoles, what does that matter to the Switch? The Switch needs to sell well enough to provide a market for Nintendo's software and accessories, as well as attract third parties. The 3DS attracted third parties, but the Switch can do better, and that should be its goal. Nintendo is absolutely trying to grow their brand and their business, but not by trying to hit Wii + DS status in the console market again. They are expanding elsewhere, into mobile and multimedia content. |
As I said to begin with, that's not normally something you'd do, but the Wii U's numbers were so low that Nintendo certainly wants to do more than the 3DS + Wii U total. I'm not adding the numbers, I'm saying that merging the two markets should be worth more than the 3DS + Wii U total and Nintendo would not be happy with the amount of retraction that would represent. The Wii U's total is far too low to be considered acceptable.
"The only purpose for selling hardware is as a platform for software and accessories," is not really true, either. There will be peaks and valleys, obviously, but if you're going steadily backwards then your brand is losing value. Even if you're making a profit every year, your userbase is declining. In business, a lack of growth is the same as dying. Nintendo, especially, has a problem where they've been depending on a small pool of die-hard fans instead of growing their base of new fans. That's why they were concerned that Amiibo did not work as intended. They have to start selling more hardware, which would indicate that they're bringing new consumers into the fold. Otherwise, they'll eventually atrophy.
Now, if you're saying that the Wii U does represent Nintendo's potential in the home console market, and that they could not do better, then you have that right, but we'll have to disagree. I think the Wii U was just a badly designed product and that the home console market has a lot more potential for them than that. Merging the handheld and home console markets should represent more sales than either market alone and it should bring a higher attach rate.
