Why would most people spend $10 on what seems to be a very average game when they can get other average games for a fraction of that? Because it has "Mario" in the title?
No, Nintendo simply overvalued the brand relative to the average mobile consumer.
Beyond that, whomever was in charge of this project showed a poor understanding of the market. Most people don't spend much money at all on mobile games because there is an over-supply of titles without much to separate them.
The real money is in the smaller pool of people who spend hundreds of dollars on micro-transactions. The whales WANT to burn money but with the model Mario run uses, they're only have the same top end value as anyone else. That doesn't make any sense. It's like telling the high rollers at a casino that they can only bet $10 at a time when they want to bet $1000 with every roll of the dice.
Really, blaming the consumer for poor marketing is an exercise in futility. One thing I've learned in business is that the customer is always right about what they like. You can try to give them what YOU want to give them, sure, but it's your own fault if they're not interested.
