haxxiy said:
If you go by VGC numbers, then the Wii U sold 2M after the first month and only 0.4M the month after that. The PS4 had a similar, albeit smaller drop: 3.73M the first month, 1.33M the second month. The Xbox One had a more radical drop still, from 2.9M the first month to about 0.42M the second month, in part because it was no longer holiday season. It seems like a console selling 15-30% of its first month numbers is a good estimate for a second month, assuming the non-simultaneous launch and the end of the year launch roughly cancel one another, so 3.15M to 3.55M is indeed the most reasonable estimate. So, it could be at least one of those will be closer to reality than your prediction. |
These all started during the holiday season, but not the Switch, which will screw this stat over. And considering Japan is easely making 200k+ in April, the drop doesn't seem to be that strong for the console.
Also, those consoles all had few new game releases in their 3 first months after the launch, so they had little to go for apart from ongoing hype. Switch has MK8DX, which will boost sales yet again (unless supply restrictions prevent it from doing so)
All this makes me feel that anything below 3.5M is lowballing right now for Switch in April.
