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Bofferbrauer said:

2.74M end of March, still sure about your predictions?

If you go by VGC numbers, then the Wii U sold 2M after the first month and only 0.4M the month after that. The PS4 had a similar, albeit smaller drop: 3.73M the first month, 1.33M the second month. The Xbox One had a more radical drop still, from 2.9M the first month to about 0.42M the second month, in part because it was no longer holiday season.

It seems like a console selling 15-30% of its first month numbers is a good estimate for a second month, assuming the non-simultaneous launch and the end of the year launch roughly cancel one another, so 3.15M to 3.55M is indeed the most reasonable estimate. So, it could be at least one of those will be closer to reality than your prediction.