Only Minecraft and Street Fighter for May? Can Switch sell well this month?

[Zod95]

zorg1000 said:

Zod95 said:

If those 50M are lifetime sales, and assuming 50% are from home console buyers and the other 50% are from the handheld clientele, you're basically seeing the successor of 3DS with only 25M in sales. Somehow and to some extent you do believe in my theory, unless you expect the handheld market to shrink to a third this next generation (after being shrunk to a third from the previous one).

Of course you're not expecting the NS to have the exact same number of games as the Wii, but can we say you're expecting for it to have more or less the same amount (for example, < 20% different)?

i didnt say 50 million, i said well over 50 million, as in 50 million being the absolute minimum.

I have no specific prediction for number of games, Wii had over 1200 retail games, Wii U has roughly 200. I think Switch will be closer to Wii than Wii U.

As for me, I have no absolutes. Switch can very well sell over 100M. It can also sell under 10M. I don't know. Nobody knows (I wonder how you're certain that it will sell above 50M). It all depends on how gamers react and how Nintendo reacts to those reactions. It all depends on the scenarios that end up being generated.

However, I see some scenarios more likely than others. The most likely scenario I see (my best bet) leads to Switch selling 20M by the end of 2020. It can be more, it can be less. Time will tell how far I am from the truth. But you're not in that game. You're in the game of criticizing others' bets.