zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:
20-30 million sellers in themselves are very rare, Wii Sports is a bit of a bloated case because it was bundled so heavily.
The important thing too is those 20-30 million come from a *new audience* too, not just the established base you were going to get anyway. That's the difference from a 3DS that sells 70 million and one that maybe could have hit 100 million. It never got the 2 games to drive hardware sales to a new audience on that level. It got all the main Nintendo IP ... Pokemon, Mario Kart, 3D Mario, 2D Mario, Zelda, Kirby, etc. but that only got them to about 65 million LTD after six full years.
Nintendo has not been able to make *that* game for a while though. They thought Wii Music would be huge. Nope. Nintendogs + cats could carry the 3DS. Nope. Nintendo Land would carry the Wii U. Nope. 1,2 Switch for Switch ... not really, it's selling about on par with Nintendo Land. They have not adjusted well after the smartphone boom happened and keep trying to go back to that extreme casual audience thinking they want to spend $50 on a video game (on top of $300 for the system).
Splatoon has been their biggest "new" success, but it's not that tier of success yet, maybe they can push Splatoon 2 extra hard, I dunno. In the US/Europe, Splatoon didn't really cause a boost in Wii U sales at all though, it was just mainly in Japan where we saw a modest uptick.
Particularily for Nintendo and Microsoft it's very hard for them to have hardware that can hit 100+ million without new hit games that drive an audience to them that wouldn't otherwise buy their systems. Sony is a little bit of a different story, and they simply execute and have better focus than Nintendo/MS do but even they usually need something new to breakout in order to carry platform sales past what they generally would be.
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You are really good at arguing against things people never said.
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Point remains -- 100 mill is likely not happening with a new breakout IP that sells *a lot* and brings in an audience that wouldn't otherwise in most likelyhood have purchased the system.
Wii Sports obviously did that for the Wii, but it's not the only singular example of that.
1,2 Switch is basically Nintendo's attempt at making a Wii Sports though and it's nowhere close, that's all I'm saying is they don't right now have *that* game.
All the Pokemons and Mario Kart and Smash Bros. and 2D Mario and 3D Mario only got the 3DS to 65 million even after an extended life cycle of 6 full years. So if the Switch is more or less going to rely on these IP plus Splatoon .... I dunno if that makes up the difference from 65 mill to 100 mill. You need to have something huge break out and Nintendo has not had a lot of luck trying to find that game since the industry changed 6-7 years ago.
That said as I've said before I don't think 100 million in itself is that big of a deal. I would rather have 70 million on the basis of a loyal customer base that plays video games intently rather than a wishy washy crowd of 100 million that could jump ship at any moment.
