Ariakon said:
Very true, I just meant that Wii's initial shipments (i.e. the first few months) weren't huge. The fact that those shortages lasted for years afterwards was a product of ridiculous demand. As bullish as I am about the Switch, I just don't know if it can do the same. I mean, the Wii had everyone salivating for it, freaking retirement homes were buying units for their residents to use. |
The Wii did have an odd self-perpetuating aspect after the first year or so, though the first year was mostly gamers iirc. The Switch I think should cross 50 mil comfortably if Nintendo goes the way they seem to be. Beyond that is impossible to predict at this point. Those really high numbers like 80+ or 100+ million are not just driven by good games or even good hardware. It's driven by a powerful brand that galvanizes the consumer to buy it en masse. Numerous systems have been successful but never managed to build that kind of power. The N64 jumped off the line but ultimately failed to gain that kind of power in the market despite what it could do as a system. The PS2 DID gain that power quickly despite the fact that it was - without question - an inferior piece of hardware to the GameCube and Xbox. It's just a hard thing to do and it takes time. You can get to those 30+ to 50+ million on the basis of solid hardware and good software, but going beyond that usually requires more. And you can't really determine if a system has that until at least the first holiday after launch or the second year.
