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Soundwave said:

If they cut the price to $250 and have a game bundled, which I suspect could happen as early as this fall ... is the price issue even that big of a deal?

It's a mere $50 more than the 3DS XL, which is the model that has the overwhelming majority of 3DS sales especially early in the life cycle.

Most 3DS buyers are willing to pay $200 for that ... Switch is way better hardware, TV output, way better screen resoution, detachable controllers, more built-in storage, and the entire Nintendo future catalog on one device (there's no Splatoon 3DS or Zelda: BotW for 3DS) and you're get a free game? 

That's very unlikely. For now Switch is seeling great for $300 without bundled game, so to go from that to $250 with bundled game in its 1st year Switch would need to sell terrible, and that $250 with one game in 1st year would basically mean saving mode for Switch.I can definitely see Switch for holiday season get bundled one game for instance MK8 Deluxe or 1,2 Switch, but price cut in 1st year is posibile only if sales are bad. Switch with $300 price and bundled game and already availible games on market like Zelda BotW, MK8 Deluxe, ARMS, Splatoon2, Mario Odyssey, posible Pokemon or some other game, will be very popular in any case at holiday season.

Most 3DS owners bought 3DS for price point $150-200. Definatly good number of them will pay even $300 for curent Swtich, but also good number will not be willing to pay that price and they will wait smaller more affordable version that will actually be better like handheld device.