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Ariakon on 17 March 2017
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Miyamotoo said:
Soundwave said:

Probably should be noted though, Nintendo has by now a fairly established history of projecting shipment forecasts which they fail to reach.

I think virtually every year of both 3DS and Wii U, they ended up selling less than what they forecast, in many cases their projections are hilarious to look back at now -- ie: Wii U was supposed to sell 10 million in it's first full fiscal year. 3DS was far off some of Nintendo's ambitious targets as well.

Difference is that they decided to double production after Switch launch and after they saw market demand for Switch, while initial plan was to produce 8m Switch in its 1st year. Nintendo itself said they will raise production numbers if demand is strong.

Also production plan and sales forecast are two different things, you better add that ("to produce" not "forecast") in hadline.

True, but they also placed Wii U's forecasts at 9 million well after launch, and it ended up doing about a third of that. As you say, though, production plans and sales forecasts are very different. I'm still very bullish on Switch, I just think that 16m might be a bit high. I could definitely see 12 to 13 million, though.