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I like the system quite a bit, but I do wonder if Nintendo is maybe getting a tad ahead of themselves.

I don't think the system has the same crossover appeal the Wii or DS had, 1,2 Switch is not really taking off the same way way Wii Sports or Brain Training did and the "sharing the Joycon" mechanic is conivenant in a pinch and all but I don't know if it's really going to become the next big thing in gaming.

As such the system is largely going to have to sell to core Nintendo fans ... which I mean, if they have a knock your socks off library, it could happen, but 16 million in a year is a lot to try to push down especially with a product north of $200+ even with Mario and Pokemon. 

Dragon Quest XI and probably a Monster Hunter would help but mainly in Japan.  

Could be a bit like Amiibo where Nintendo undershipped initially, and then overshipped too much in response, my local stores are still stocked with a crapton of unsold Animal Crossing Amiibo that have been sitting there forever.