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barneystinson69 said:

Based on exit polling. Right... The same exit polling that was horribly off in the us elections, and said that brexit was a lost cause? 

Using one US election to base all voting for all countries going forward probably isn't the best metric to base polls on. That's like using the Wii as a metric for all console gens going forward. It's just unreliable, more unreliable than not believing polls