Analyst: PS5 In 2H 2018 > 10TFLOPS

[KBG29]

Bofferbrauer said:

with 4 GPUs? Hell no!

GPUs are pretty difficult to syncronise, especially if they have to work on graphics (Cuda/OpenCL is much easier) since not every part of the screen needs the same amount of ressources and calculating power. It would microstutter all the time even in 60fps

PS4 Pro doesn't use 2 GPUs, just one with twice the amount of Compute Units of the base model. This was possible due to the introduction of the 14nm process (smaller chip, less power consuption and thus less heat production), but the next process update is far in the future. Intel is struggling for quite some time now with it's 10nm process (Kaby Lake and the upcoming Coffe lake are stopgaps due to the 10nm  cannonlake kept getting delayed and ultimately only ending up in mobile devices, not desktops or servers), and Globalfoundries (who are producing most of AMDs chips) stated that they will jump that process and go directly to 7nm, which is to come 2H 2021 in the earliest

As for your dream PS5, that won't come out before 2025 for sure. There ain't any Graphics card yet coming even close to 20TF, let alone surpassing it. 64GB is a giant amount of RAM. In DDR4 Memory this would cost right now already around 500$ minimum. Even high-end Gaming PCs don't go above 32GB yet, as more is useless right now unless one is rendering a lot (and even then it's barely noticeable). Did I mention that prices for RAM are going up instead of down since for about a year now because smartphones are using up almost all the production capacities for RAM?

A console OS shouldn't need that much RAM, even Windows 10 can go on 2GB (4GB is strongly recommended) and that one has vastly more functions than a console OS. What features would be in that OS to consume such a high amount of RAM?

Fast M.2 SSDs are also very expensive as they need high-end Chips which don't come cheap. 1 such as you prposed with a capacity of just 500GB costs around 300$ minimum right now. The prices are still dropping, but not nearly as fast as they did in the past anymore however, so having a 2TB or higher capacity would still get quite expensive , much more than a hard drive with x times it's capacity would do

I was just explaining it the same way Mark Cerny did. I know that PS4 has 18CU's while the Pro has 36CU's. PS4 Premium should have 72CU's. As far as 7nm goes, all I keep seeing is that we should have 7nm FinFET GPU's by next year or early 2019, making a 7nm PS4 Premium possible for the end of the year. Vega 20 is supposed to be 7nm with 32GB of HBM2.  

As for increased RAM and increased performance, that all comes down to how many people acutally have it. Right now most people have 4GB of DDR3 in there PC. Gamers have 8GB DDR3 and a 2 or 4GB GPU or a 8GB Console. Then you have the hardcore gamers with 16 - 32GB of DDR4 and an 8GB GPU or Two. Right now most programms are made with the 4GB base PCs and tablets in mind, and games are built for PS4/XBO and scaled up for PC. Once new console arrive and set a new baseline, the whole software industry will shift.

The next consoles will need massive OS RAM, becuase they will be full fledged PCs. Video and Photo editing for streamers and Youtubers will be possible in game. Running a game while having Video in a side window will be standard. Consoles will be for the majority the most powerful PC in their home. 

2025 is pretty much when I expect PS5. PS5 should arrive with 3nm fabrication, which I think will happen by late 2023 at the earliest. By then all the stuff you are talking about will have dropped massively. Samsung says they expect SSD tech to drop below HDD tech $/GB by 2020, so that will be no issue. Top end PC GPU's will be pushing 40TFLOPS by then so, even at 20 - 30TFLOPS people will claim consoles are under powered.