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i think maybe discussing 10million is less interesting than which games will hit 5 million on a single format.

It would be an absurdly expensive game to require even 2 million sales to break even. 5 million sales on a single platform is incredible, check out the total games hitting 5 million on these consoles:

PS2 - 12 games
XBOX - 2 games
360 - 4 games
PS3 - 0 games yet (GTA4 should pass 5 million at some point)

Gears 2 should pass 5 million but hitting 5 million is not an easy achievement. Even more interesting is that 2 franchises alone Halo (3) and GTA (4) account for over half of the over 5 million copies sold games from the latest 2 Sony and M$ consoles. Sure there is more analysis worth doing on this (Nintendo Consoles, 1st vs 3rd party) but my lunch break does not allow for it!