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The key at this point is not console market share, it's market penetration on the part of game developers.  It doesn't matter if my market size is 100 million people if only 5 of them will actually pay for my product.  By comparison, a 7 million person market size where everyone will buy my product is phenominal.

The Wii needs to solidly show developers that their big name titles are worth putting on it versus the PS3 or 360.  Right now there's a stigma following the Wii that has yet to be shattered.  You can point to sales evidence if you like but it's not overwhelming enough to actually be a solid case to developers yet.