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The holidays will either make it happen quicker as Nintendo does huge shipments in Nov/Dec, but.... if it doesn't make it, then it will be a huge drought in Jan/Feb.

and there is always the chance that Nintendo will saturate demand at the $250 mark in America by then....

Time will tell... Right now, I would say it could go either way, but I am guess demand will not be met this year, and sales for 360 and PS3 will be good this year during the holidays, and we are looking at 2Q 2009.