PS4/X1 sales to peak this year and keep it for 2018?

[zorg1000]

Shadow1980 said:

If the XBO's sales continue to be up YoY in the U.S., through July and flat from August to December, then 2017 should be its peak, though not a very pronounced one. However, based on the Pro's effect on PS4 sales, I don't expect much out of the Scorpio, especially if it launches at $500.

As for the PS4, it's harder to tell. In the U.S. and Europe it was down YoY overall in 2016 (more so in the former than the latter; the respective drops were 11.3% and 2.8%, though most of that drop in the U.S. was from an uncharacteristically bad November for both systems). Now, systems have done a zigzag in their sales before, but it's extremely rare in any of the data and only happened last generations as far as I'm aware of and was restricted to single regions. The 360 was down YoY in Europe in 2009 but rebounded in 2010, the PS3 was down YoY in Japan in 2008 but rebounded in 2009, and the PSP was down YoY. The aforementioned zigzag in Europe for the 360 did cause 360 sales to zigzag globally, but that's because that single-region 14% YoY drop (according to VGC anyway) was not offset by sales increases in the U.S. (which were up by a meager 0.7% YoY in 2009) and Japan (which was up 7.5% YoY but was too small of a market for the 360 to make an impact).

The PS4 being up YoY is going to depend on if the U.S. market responds to a permanent price cut to $250 for the Slim (and possibly a corresponding $50 drop for the Pro) and another big holiday cut to $200 ($300 for the Pro). The current $300 price point may be too much for the Slim. Big software releases could potentially offer another smaller assist. Europe may possibly respond to a similar price cut. As for Japan, the PS4 continues to have noticeable growth since the release of the Slim, but they're a much smaller slice of PS4 sales so it may not have a big impact on any yearly shift.

ya its rare but does happen from time to time.

On a global level, PS2 was down in 2003 & 2004 then went up in 2005.

3DS was down in 2014 & 2015 then went up in 2016.