DFC: PS3 unlikely to finish in 3rd place

[Bodhesatva]

mrstickball said:
Ultimately, we can analyize/bash the predicters, but the reason they get bashed so much is they've been around so long doing what they do. I guarentee you if TheSource, Myself or Hidier were full-fledged paid analyzers we'd miss the mark too. Maybe not as bad as some, but still, there is so much about the video game market. It's still growing at such a huge, rapid pace, and with huge growth comes rapid market changes. It's not every day you see an upstart company like Sony totally manhandle the tried and true Nintendo, and vice versa.

So we just have to be careful. Now as for Patcher.....That's another deal. Let him fry. :)

The biggest problem with being an analyst isn't that they've been around for so long, it's that they need to make bold claims to get attention.

Look at the Source's posts: they're full of data, come to min/max conclusions about the optimal/minimal possibilities for each console, and effectively conclude that each console has a shot to do well in this generation, with the most likely winner being the Wii.

That's all true, but it's not going to grab any press releases. Saying something like "X Console will win," is the way to grab headlines -- spoken in absolutes, with little or no data to support it, because data is boring to most people. Better yet, saying "The PS3 will win" not only speaks in absolutes, but suggests such a radical turnaround of the current environment that people post and comment about it.

The problem isn't that analysts have been around for too long, it's that these particular analysts (especially Pachter) are shooting for attention, and you need to be extreme to get attention.