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Nintendo is shipping two million i am willing to bet they will only sell half of that. Here are my reasonings:

Nintendo does better during holidays

The reveal has been a disaster

While the concept of the switch is awesome it has not been taken well by even some fans due to low battery life

Zelda isnt exclusive

Japan continues to be a weak market

Wii u left a bad taste in some peoples mouths

Paid online makes it less desirable for a second console

No backwards compatibility 

Price is too high