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ckmlb said:

PS3 is not doomed, people are very short sighted. They predict doom and gloom for the PS3 and the loss of a lot of 3rd party exclusives, but what people fail to consider is that the new big 3rd party exclusives of the generation will come further in. Games like GTA's success will come along on a certain console and define it (PS2 in N.A. was defined to a big extent by GTA's success).


You're right ... the exclusive games that are going to 'win' this generation for a console are going to be the ones that are started after Holiday season 2007. What platform will a developer choose:

Wii: 20 Million user userbase, $5 to $20 million budget
XBox 360: 16  Million user userbase,  $20 to $40 Million budget
PS3: 7 Million user userbase, $20 to $40 Million budget

Publishers always take the safest route when publishing a game and Lower Budget + Larger Userbase makes the Wii the obvious choice.