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This is what sourse said last time.

"Through May 22, 2008 total preorders for Metal Gear Solid 4 in Japan are at 165,000 units. That number includes the version listed as the ‘special edition’ as well as the version listed as the ‘limited edition’. With roughly three weeks left to order the game in Japan, the preorder number should increase at least another 10-15%."

He predicted 10-15% increase but there is already 20% increase and still 10 days to go. And don't forgot 80.000-100.000 Mgs4 bundles. So retail pre orders will be close to 250.000+100.000 bundles. These are retail pre orders so the actual sales can be lower for first week.