Anything could happen between now and then: Opinions seesawing up and down with cards still in play.
E3 and any Direct could end up creating sales by announcing anything, and the supply issue could easily be amended in April's shipments.
More than any console Nintendo's fate can be shaped by single games. A Pokemon release revived dying handhelds and kept them afloat since their inception and first party hits drive sales.
Nintendo games don't go down in price outside of real bad ones like Ultra Smash, Codename S.T.E.A.M, and Amiibo Festival. That's because they are always in demand, and sell for a lot longer than a lot of other games consistently.
The Switch's fate won't be clear until 2016's end, though E3 I feel will point in a direction or another.
The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?