RolStoppable said:
Right, I didn't post a prediction in this thread. But this thread isn't about posting predictions, it's about how you form a proper prediction. Regardless, my prediction is that Switch will sell more units than 3DS and Wii U combined. Here are some of the reasons: 1. Switch does not commit hardware blunders like the 3DS and Wii U. The market didn't like 3D. There was no reason to believe that the second coming of the GameCube would suddenly be successful instead of a failure. The Gamepad is the logical evolution of the GC-GBA connectivity that used a second screen to provide additional information or asymmetrical multiplayer; ideas of such GameCube ideas were implemented in the Wii U launch title Nintendo Land. The Wii U was built around failed ideas. On the other hand, Switch is not tethered to the TV. People like portability. The kids who have been growing up in the last ~10 years do not see the TV as the central piece of entertainment like older generations do. The idea that a game console is limited to the TV will eventually be archaic. Other Switch hardware features revolve around the Joy-cons. People like multiplayer, so being able to use a console for that right out of the box is a plus. Motion controllers were a hit in the past. Their demise was that Nintendo changed to a controller that doesn't provide proper motion controls (the Gamepad). Nevermind that motion controls are only an optional part of the system, so there's no reason why anyone should be offended by them. 2. Switch's software pipeline is going to be in good shape, because it's the device where all Nintendo games will go. Droughts like on the Wii U aren't going to happen. Switch is also going to be off to a great start as far as big software is concerned which makes price the only real hurdle that needs to be overcome. 3. Switch is made by a humbled Nintendo that is going to take sales data into account, so the games they make will be more in line with what the market wants, unlike on the 3DS and Wii U where it was all too often about being creative and doing whatever the developers want. Cases in point: The new Zelda doesn't follow Skyward Sword's footsteps, the new 3D Mario does not aim to replace 2D Mario. I don't expect every game to be shaped like this, but there will be more caution on Nintendo's part when it comes to their flagship games. 4. Switch's positioning in the market is unique, meaning that there is no substitute for it. That's how and why Nintendo will be able to get away with the prices they charge. If there's no comparable competition, companies can charge a premium and still sell a lot of units. Switch's nature also makes it highly unlikely that Sony or Microsoft even dare to challenge Nintendo. The Wii, which also had unique positioning, could be addressed by releasing peripherals for PS3 and 360. That way Sony and Microsoft could say that Nintendo isn't the only one to offer such products anymore. Switch is a much bigger deal though, because peripherals aren't going to cut it and the typical processing power of Sony's and Microsoft's consoles works against them. |
Interesting. I would make a bet with you but long term bets never work out. Chalk me down for less than 3DS and Wii U combined.
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