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This is a completely unreasonable prediction.

I mean, really? The Switch will sell worse than the 3DS sold at $250 with a garbage-tier catalog of games?

The 3DS sold over 3 million units at $250 in its first five months. The only games Nintendo had released for it were Pilotwings Resort, Nintendogs+cats, Steel Diver, Star Fox 64 3D, and Ocarina of Time 3D.

But you think that the Switch will sell just 4 million in a time-frame twice as long with Nintendo releasing Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2, Super Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade Chronicles 2, and other smaller titles?