I just don't see how the Switch will attract new consumers.
They'll get Wii U owners and 3DS owners (many of whom owned both so it's not Wii U + 3DS). Beyond that, things get rocky.
Zelda is going to attract some Playstation/Xbox gamers who can afford a second system. Pokemon GO might pull in some casuals but I doubt it will be a significant amount, as most casuals will be content with what they have.
It's also important to realize that the Wii, as popular as it was, also somewhat poisoned the well.
A LOT of casuals bought it. A lot of casuals also played it for a little while then pushed it under the TV and forgot about it. They now know that console gaming is not for them. They're not interested in another expensive gaming system. They have their phone and they're content.
In addition to that, despite the hipster marketing of the Switch, they've shown nothing that comes close to Wii Sports in terms of consumer impact.
I simply have trouble visualizing the Switch expanding Nintendo's consumer base by a significant margin.
