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Depends some things
How long to reduce price to 250$, 200$? seems that would be pretty soon.
If Monter hunter, pokemon, and other show up, will easily outsell wii U
Depends also on newer versions, new features.
HD rumble if used with VR can me pretty imersive, and a low cost option for PSVR(although is still no mainstream).
A smaller and cheaper version that appeal 3DS demographic would also help a lot.
best case scenario, it can sell 80 million.