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pokoko on 13 January 2017
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UltimateUnknown said:
pokoko said:
Unless there is a true handheld successor to the 3DS around the corner then there is no way the Switch will sell less than the Wii U. I'd be completely surprised if it didn't at the very least double the Wii U.

Of course, that being said, the expectations for success have to be much higher, as well. Double the Wii U would be a dismal failure. It's going to have to sell enough software to make up for two systems, not one.

A significant portion of the Wii U audience (at least 10 million) will buy this because they are hardcore Nintendo fans.

But saying that the Switch will sell double Wii U to be a success is pretty horrendous. The Wii U+3DS sold about 80 million. If the Switch did 30 million it would be an absolute travesty considering it is the first console in Nintendo history that is both the successor to the portable and the home console market.

I think therein lies the biggest problem though. Nintendo handhelds have always been successful given their low price points. The Switch is a $300 handheld if you consider it a successor to the 3DS. Remember how bad the 3DS was doing at $250? This costs $300. There is no way the Switch at that price point sells to the same audience that bought a much cheaper 3DS (at around half that price) after price cut. At this rate it probably will do double Wii U, but that's pretty bad when you realise that this thing is supposed to be the successor of the 3DS as well which sold around 65 million.

I'm a bit confused.  I said double the Wii U would be a dismal failure.  

Though, the Switch doesn't have to sell as much as Wii U + 3DS.  The key is going to be software and the hope that the attach rate soars (which it might not).