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Unless there is a true handheld successor to the 3DS around the corner then there is no way the Switch will sell less than the Wii U. I'd be completely surprised if it didn't at the very least double the Wii U.

Of course, that being said, the expectations for success have to be much higher, as well. Double the Wii U would be a dismal failure. It's going to have to sell enough software to make up for two systems, not one.