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Well for 3rd party to sell well it will take at least 10 years.

here is why

1. Nintendo will need to make on parity hardware to make it easy for devs and cost effective.
2. The young kids today who game on Nintendo will grow up in a golden era and will not therefore have the need to get a xbox or playstation.
3. People who left already most won''t comeback it is too late to win the majority back, hence point 2.