Prediction: PS4 up YOY big time in 2017

[JWeinCom]

bluedawgs said:

JWeinCom said:

They're the same factors I mentioned just a bit ago.  Systems just don't spike in sales 4 years after their debut.  The only system to grow since and including the PS2 in its fourth year was the PS3.  That was a small growth (7% and less than a million in absolute number) and that was a system with a much lower start.  And, the PS3 was on the upswing, having risen 24% the year before, while the PS4 is basically stagnant.

The only time we've seen a big increase in a system's sale after the fourth year was the XBox 360 in its fifth year, and that was due entirely to the Kinect's success.

The point is, if sales are going to rise, there has to be some extraordinary reason.  Price cuts aren't anything new, so that doesn't seem like it could be a reason, even if Sony could drop the price, which they may not do (especially for the Pro, unless Scorpio comes in very cheap).

As for the games lineup, even if I granted that it was a lot better than 2016 (which I'm not sure it is) it's not so crazy amazing that it should cause the PS4 to defy all industry expectation.  We can compare it to the PS3 lineup.  The PS3 had Mass Effect 2, Red Dead Redemption, God of War, Gran Turismo 5, Heavy Rain, Black Ops, Bad Company 2, Assassin's Creed Brotherhood, Sports Champions, and so on.  Actually, a fairly similar list, but probably a bit stronger since the franchises were fresher, especially COD and Assassin's Creed.  

The situation the PS4 is in is not unusual, but you're expecting an unusual result. 

don't know what else to say at this point, i'm just not seeing your year on year drop and with higher sales in the holiday season this year compared to last with the united states being heavily down just screams to me that the ps4 has regained its momentum that it lost from the august slim and pro leak period to november and seriously deny it all you want but red dead redemption, with a bundle that will almost certainly happen along with Destiny 2 and whatever marketing tactics go along with that along with $199 and a large amount of quality software that appeals to pretty much all markets spread out the entire year, to me, seems like an obvious reason for a spike but if that can't happen simply because the "trends" tell you otherwise then i don't know what else to tell you

The way you make accurate predictions is by looking at the data.  Given similar circumstances, similar results should occur.

Every system has had bundles in their later years.  Every system has had high profile sequels in their later years (higher profile than Destiny 2).  Every system has had price cuts in their later years.

So, why do you expect these things to do for PS4 what they didn't do for any other system?