Prediction: PS4 up YOY big time in 2017

[zorg1000]

Mummelmann said:

bluedawgs said:

lol after this year it will only need to sell around 30 million units to pass ps1 and you're expecting it to not do that, so i don't know what you think dropping like a rock looks like, but not being able to sell 30 million more units, ever, after this year is what dropping like a rock looks like to me

53.4 million as of the start of 2017, I believe it will be at around 70 million lifetime by the end of 2017, that means it needs another 40 million to beat the PS1. And, no, I don't think it will, the decline after new hardware releases will likely be savage and quick.

Roughly 16.6-17 million sales in 2017 equals ~~70 million lifetime. Another 14-15 million in 2018, followed by 11-12 million in 2019 and 6-7 million in 2020 (figuring that the PS5 launches in late 2019).

That's below the 110 million or so of the PS1, by some margin. 100 million is quite realistic, 110 million not quite so much, from where I'm sitting at least. But, what do I know, maybe my chair is broken.

I will also add that I've predicted the PS4 year end lifetime sales within a margin of about 500k these past two years (400k off in 2015, overshot, and 600 over in 2016, overshot), so my guesses are seemingly better than average at least.

Care to tell me how the PS4 will reach 110 million sales lifetime then? Also; thread title clearly states "up yoy big time", which means a large increase, something has to drive this and there's really nothing I can see on the horizon to produce this growth. The best they can hope for is to remain more less flat, in my opinion. Time will tell who has it right, but my stance at least has some pretty decent trends and data to go by.

Just to let you know, PS1 did not sell 110 million, it was 102 million.

Also you think PS4 will sell 6-7 million in 2020 and nothing afterwards?