bluedawgs said:
I made this thread, i stated why i think it will be up a lot year on year in the first post of this thread but i guess i can throw some reasons out there again. Big software, much bigger than 2016 (if you want to argue against that, fine, but most people will disagree) and a price cut for both the slim and the pro. Also the Playstation sold 102.5 million units, not 110 million, and since i predicted 20 million for PS4 this year, which means it will be at 73.4 million at least by the end of 2017, it will have to sell less than 29 million for the rest of its life to not outsell the PS1, if we go by your 16.5 million prediction and PS4 being at 70 million by the end of 2017 then it needs to sell 32.5 million or more to outsell PS1 also i don't know what trends you're talking about either, it went up year on year for the third consecutive year, and the software being much more attractive and plentiful this year compared to last year is so obvious that it actually stings when you and other people don't acknowledge it, also i'm under the impression that ps4 will sell for $199 at some point this year which is an extremely attractive price point |
bluedawgs said:
I made this thread, i stated why i think it will be up a lot year on year in the first post of this thread but i guess i can throw some reasons out there again. Big software, much bigger than 2016 (if you want to argue against that, fine, but most people will disagree) and a price cut for both the slim and the pro. Also the Playstation sold 102.5 million units, not 110 million, and since i predicted 20 million for PS4 this year, which means it will be at 73.4 million at least by the end of 2017, it will have to sell less than 29 million for the rest of its life to not outsell the PS1, if we go by your 16.5 million prediction and PS4 being at 70 million by the end of 2017 then it needs to sell 32.5 million or more to outsell PS1 also i don't know what trends you're talking about either, it went up year on year for the third consecutive year, and the software being much more attractive and plentiful this year compared to last year is so obvious that it actually stings when you and other people don't acknowledge it, also i'm under the impression that ps4 will sell for $199 at some point this year which is an extremely attractive price point |
They're the same factors I mentioned just a bit ago. Systems just don't spike in sales 4 years after their debut. The only system to grow since and including the PS2 in its fourth year was the PS3. That was a small growth (7% and less than a million in absolute number) and that was a system with a much lower start. And, the PS3 was on the upswing, having risen 24% the year before, while the PS4 is basically stagnant.
The only time we've seen a big increase in a system's sale after the fourth year was the XBox 360 in its fifth year, and that was due entirely to the Kinect's success.
The point is, if sales are going to rise, there has to be some extraordinary reason. Price cuts aren't anything new, so that doesn't seem like it could be a reason, even if Sony could drop the price, which they may not do (especially for the Pro, unless Scorpio comes in very cheap).
As for the games lineup, even if I granted that it was a lot better than 2016 (which I'm not sure it is) it's not so crazy amazing that it should cause the PS4 to defy all industry expectation. We can compare it to the PS3 lineup. The PS3 had Mass Effect 2, Red Dead Redemption, God of War, Gran Turismo 5, Heavy Rain, Black Ops, Bad Company 2, Assassin's Creed Brotherhood, Sports Champions, and so on. Actually, a fairly similar list, but probably a bit stronger since the franchises were fresher, especially COD and Assassin's Creed.
The situation the PS4 is in is not unusual, but you're expecting an unusual result.
