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JRPGfan on 05 January 2017
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Mummelmann said:
RolStoppable said:

I agree, the PS4 won't break that 20m barrier for a single calendar year. The system's surrounding variables match up with those of many previous winning systems (the competition is beaten, third parties have put their full weight behind the console), so a peak in year 2-3 followed by a soft decline is the most probable sales trajectory. Beyond year 3 for such a system, about the only things that can lead to an uptick in sales are a revision (the PS4 already got it in 2016) or a new IP that becomes a breakout hit.

If we break down PS4 sales by region, 2016 was already a decline from 2015 outside of Japan which was the only region where PS4 sales were up year over year. At this point the curve is pointing downwards in most of the world.

Last part is really interesting, I don't know how many times I've gotten into arguments with folks dubbing the PS4 "the next PS2". The PS2 was the culmination of perfect conditions for home consoles in almost every possible way and it was obvious that its success wouldn't be replicated any time soon.

I wrote about hardware revisions in the UNITY thread, there's no doubt the market has changed, it's more fast-paced and consumption driven, and with more and more non-gaming functionality on static devices like consoles, they're forced to follow more dynamic devices in their approach to updates on both hardrware and software. Even the business models for software sales and partitioned games are taking cues from the smartphone segment, with micotransactions and purchase of in-game content having grown huge since 2009-2010. Gone are the days where a game is developer for a couple of years, released and then patched a couple of times to remove kinks, now you buy in bits as you go, DLC and add-on's are absolutely everywhere.

I think the PS4 will be slightly down yoy in 2017, I can't really see much else happening at this point. Price cuts help short term (even the Wii U got a quick burst from a price cut), but if the pent up demand isn't there, consoles won't fly off the shelves even with a sizable price cut. All in all, consoles simply don't have anywhere near the same perceived value in the 8th gen as they did in the two previous generations and the audience is scattered across several segments and niches now.

PS: Do you think the PS4 can beat the PS1 in lifetime sales at this rate?

My guess?

2017: 18.5m

2018: 15m

2019: 11m

2020: 7m  (playstation 5 launches)

= about 105m around end of 2020.

 

I wouldnt even say thats overly optimistic, I can see PS4 hitting 110m+ lifetime.

So yes its going to beat the Playstation 1 sales, and probably before the Playstation 5 launches.